CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK by Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther

By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther

Based at the examine that has been performed at Wharton hazard administration Center over the earlier 5 years on catastrophic risk.

Covers a scorching subject within the mild of contemporary terroristic actions and nature catastrophes.

Develops probability administration recommendations for lowering and spreading the losses from destiny disasters.

Provides thesaurus of definitions and phrases used during the book.

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Additional resources for CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK

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On the heels of these two events, Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Southern Florida in August of 1992. Within hours of landfall, AIR Worldwide issued a fax to its clients to the effect that losses, as estimated in real time by the AIR Worldwide hurricane model, might reach the astonishing amount of $13 billion. 5 billion, was issued by the Property Claim Services Office. Nine insurers became insolvent as a result of their losses from Hurricane Andrew. Insurers and reinsurers realized that, in order to remain in business, they needed to estimate and manage their natural hazard risk more precisely.

The HAZUS study was a catalyst for action within the state government. The Department of Administrative Services, which handles risk management for state-owned facilities, increased the level of earthquake insurance coverage following discussions with DOGAMI. With the growing awareness of the earthquake threat, the Oregon State Legislature drafted several bills in 2000 addressing the need for earthquake preparedness (SB 13) and retrofitting of critical structures such as schools (SB 14), hospitals, and fire stations (SB 15).

After the severe Mississippi Floods of 1927, they concluded that the risk was too great. With the need for this type of coverage evident, Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) in 1968, whereby homes and businesses could purchase coverage for water damage. The stipulation for this financial protection was that the local community make a commitment to regulate the location and design of future floodplain construction to increase safety from 2 See Grossi and Kunreuther (2000) for more details on earthquake programs and Moss (2002, Chapter 9) for a more general discussion of the role of the public sector in providing disaster assistance.

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