A short history of mathematical population dynamics by Nicolas Bacaër

By Nicolas Bacaër

<p>As Eugene Wigner under pressure, arithmetic has confirmed unreasonably powerful within the actual sciences and their technological functions. The function of arithmetic within the organic, scientific and social sciences has been even more modest yet has lately grown due to the simulation capability provided via smooth computers.</p>

<p>This e-book lines the historical past of inhabitants dynamics---a theoretical topic heavily attached to genetics, ecology, epidemiology and demography---where arithmetic has introduced major insights. It provides an summary of the genesis of a number of very important issues: exponential progress, from Euler and Malthus to the chinese language one-child coverage; the improvement of stochastic versions, from Mendel's legislation and the query of extinction of family members names to percolation thought for the unfold of epidemics, and chaotic populations, the place determinism and randomness intertwine.</p>

<p>The reader of this e-book will see, from a unique viewpoint, the issues that scientists face whilst governments ask for trustworthy predictions to aid keep watch over epidemics (AIDS, SARS, swine flu), deal with renewable assets (fishing quotas, unfold of genetically changed organisms) or expect demographic evolutions reminiscent of aging.</p>

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Verhulst probably realized that Quetelet’s mechanical analogy was not reasonable and proposed instead the following (still somewhat arbitrary) differential equation for the population P(t) at time t: P dP = rP 1− . e. exponential growth1 . The growth rate decreases as P(t) gets closer to K. It would even become negative if P(t) could exceed K. 5). 1) by P2 and setting p = 1/P, we get d p/dt = −r p+r/K. With q = p − 1/K, we get dq/dt = −r q and q(t) = q(0) e−r t = (1/P(0) − 1/K) e−r t . So we can deduce p(t) and P(t).

1007/978-0-85729-115-8 6, © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011 35 36 6 Verhulst and the logistic equation (1838) Indeed, Verhulst published in 1838 a Note on the law of population growth. Here are some extracts: We know that the famous Malthus showed the principle that the human population tends to grow in a geometric progression so as to double after a certain period of time, for example every twenty five years. This proposition is beyond dispute if abstraction is made of the increasing difficulty to find food [.

2) and from the initial condition (Aa)0 = 1 that (Aa)n = 2n . 1), we get that (AA)n+1 = 4 (AA)n + 2n . We easily realize that (AA)n = c 2n is a particular solution when c = −1/2. The general solution of the “homogeneous” equation (AA)n+1 = 4 (AA)n is (AA)n = C 4n . Finally, adding these two solutions, we see that (AA)n = C 4n − 2n−1 satisfies the initial condition (AA)0 = 0 if C = 1/2. As for the sequence (aa)n , it satisfies the same recurrence relation and the same initial condition as (AA)n .

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