A Dynamical Theory of Economic Equilibrium by Roos C.F.

By Roos C.F.

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Since 1991, united Germany has consistently had sizeable current account deficits. Again, German unification provides a plausible – though by no means exhaustive – explanation. Through privatisation, the industrial base of eastern Germany has been reduced to a (viable) core of firms that has a reasonable chance of becoming competitive not only on the domestic market but in world markets as well. Viable though this core may be, it is nonetheless very small indeed: less than 14 per cent of the eastern German labour force is currently employed by the manufacturing industry – that is, in that part of the economy which produces the bulk of German tradable, and thus exportable, goods – and no more than 12 per cent of all manufacturing employees in Germany work in the east which, in turn, has roughly 20 per cent of the total labour force.

34 3. 4. 5. 6. 67 mark per transfer ruble … these numbers are simply the “shadow prices” (Richtungskoeffizienten) used internally to price foreign goods. ’ (Akerlof et al. 1991, p. 22). It was indeed thanks to the common interest of all parties involved in the bargaining process that the wage level in the East ‘exploded’ at this untilthen unprecedented speed. While the political consideration was to prevent migration, trade unions as well as employers’ associations in the West feared low-wage competition from the East.

3). 32 The ‘German Model’ in Decline In line with the development of interest rates, the external value of the DM rose against its major trade partners in the EU, which corresponds to nominal revaluations. Whereas the reactions of the exchange rates with the US dollar and the Yen were immediate and have a strikingly similar pattern compared to interest rate parities, the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) prevented the revaluation of the DM until the third quarter of 1992 (Deutsche Bundesbank 1993, p.

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